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Technology Management Strategies
by Carrie LewisEvent Summary
On February 25, IBM Global Services announced the signing of a seven-year, $4 billion outsourcing contract with American Express (Amex)one of the largest users of IT in the United States. Amex processes over 1 billion transactions a day for credit card and travel companies. Under the contract, IBM will operate Amex's data centers, host its Web site, and provide help desk support. In addition, the contract provides for scalable computing (utility computing) so that Amex can buy additional computing resources only as needed.
Market Impact
Mega outsourcing deals are on the rebound, but their structure is changing radically. First-tier players such as Accenture, IBM, and EDS have all announced mega contracts since the start of this year. The key changes in today's contract features are:
- Contacts are shorter in durationas much as 50% shorter. Traditional contracts spanned 10 to 15 years. Today's contracts are running three to seven yearswith annual reassessment procedures. Neither party wants to get locked into deals that become obsolescent as technological innovations render contract metrics irrelevant.
- Contracts are much more flexible both in scope and volume of services. Traditional contracts covered entire areas of a user's environment (e.g., the data center), but strictly controlled the scope and breadth of services delivered within that environment. Today, outsourcers are offering users the opportunity to consume as many services as they want or need via the utility computing model (also known as pay-as-you-go or capacity-on-demand).
- Pricing and cost are becoming variable. Utility computing introduces flexibility into the traditional fixed-contract outsourcing modelfixed monthly charges (typically calculated from peak computing demands) are being replaced by variable monthly charges that are based on actual computing consumption rates. The dynamic allocation and reallocation of resources in line with business changes is the next innovation in outsourcing.
Recommendations
- Substantial IT cost savings is still the key driver of today's mega-outsourcing deals, but flexibilitycontract and pricing flexibilityhas become the codriver. As first, tier players develop governance models that support the provisioning of IT outsourcing services in a scalable, utility environmentthen the coexistence of cost savings and flexibility will become the standard in outsourcing.
- Business and IT strategy alignment has become a critical end-user priority. Dynamic, self-provisioning technologies that enable end users to retain strategic control over their outsourced IT infrastructure and business will increasingly be demanded. Vendors with these capabilities are the ones that will win tomorrow's outsourcing deals.
Wireless/Mobile Asia-Pacific
by Shiv PutchaEvent Summary
China Unicom's long-awaited and much-hyped CDMA network has struggled off the starting block. Unicom reported just over 200,000 subscribers in early February. The numbers are somewhat misleading, as most of the reported CDMA users have migrated from the erstwhile Great Wall Communications service to Unicom's new offering.
Market Impact
Unicom has tried to explain away the slow uptake as the result of simple teething problems, but the new service is up against several challenges, the biggest of which is the general lack of IS-95 CDMA handsets. China's MII has licensed 19 domestic manufacturers (including Motorola's China unit) to produce the devices, but the phones are both expensive (in the US$300US$500 range), and have also reportedly displayed poor quality.
Having spent US$2.9 billion (RMB 24 billion) on the CDMA network, Unicom's success is predicated on two key factors; first, its ability to attract new users and transition existing GSM subscribers to CDMA, and secondly, the speed with which it can upgrade the new network to high-speed next-generation services. So far, Unicom has fared poorly on both counts.
Another key factor inhibiting user uptake is the positioning of the new service at the high end of the market. Most of these users are already locked into GSM services, particularly with Unicom's rival China Mobile. Moreover, Unicom is not offering pricing discounts or incentives to lure these new users over to CDMA.
With all the delays, Unicom will find it difficult to upgrade its networks to cdma2000 as originally scheduled. And with limited coverage, high handset prices, and non-incentivized tariffs, Unicom risks losing its current small CDMA user base entirely when it tries to migrate them to 1X services in the near future.
Recommendations and Conclusions
- Unicom must immediately solve the handset availability bottleneck by enlisting QUALCOMM and working closely with its vendors. Delays beyond the second quarter will impact negatively on the potential success of the service.
- An area that Unicom has yet to discuss regard its plans for offering premium content, applications, and other services for the high-end users it is targeting. Unicom's probability of success of attracting a large user base for CDMA with a voice service proposition is limited.
- Unicom must repackage its pricing plans and work to keep handset costs down, especially as its users will need new handsets when required to migrate to 1X service.
Consumer Technologies & Services
by Margo DeBoerEvent Summary
On February 26, Fujitsu PC Corp. announced its LifeBook P Series laptop computer is available with built-in wireless LAN (802.11b).
Market Impact
The Fujitsu LifeBook P Series laptop comes equipped with embedded 802.11b hardware, but still requires the consumer to purchase wireless network based hardware for the home and a monthly service through a retailer or ISP. In addition to IEEE 802.11b wireless LAN connectivity, the LifeBook P Series includes a built-in modem and an integrated 10/100 base-Tx Ethernet standard. Especially important to the mobile professional or home office worker, mobile devices allow consumers to maximize productivity by eliminating boundaries to work seamlessly in the home, airport, restaurant, or hotel. The laptop is the next productivity device to adopt wireless data network functionality, following the mobile phone and the PDA, as a result of evolving consumer mobility patterns.
Conclusions
- Fujitsu is targeting the highly valuable mobile professional consumer segment with the release of this product. With a price of $1,800, the laptop is within range of its competition. Wireless Internet is the driver for this device, and will appeal to the consumer that either already has a wireless network, or is interested in setting up a wireless network at home and looking for a device with embedded technology.
- Wireless networks are not fully developed and have many challenges to overcome including limited range, unpredictable access speed, and network security concerns. With its embedded wireless functionality in addition to the standard modem and Ethernet, the Fujitsu laptop is an example of a growing trend of productivity devices that have a range of connectivity options.
- As the PC market becomes saturated, embedded 802.11b cards create value and differentiate PC products from the competition. This wireless technology also has the ability to reach geographic markets in which consumers do not have access to DSL or cable modem services, promoting the adoption of broadband as a result.
Brazil Market Strategies, Wireless/Mobile Latin America
by Luis Minoru ShibataEvent Summary
Brazil's regulator Anatel announced the creation of a Special Auction Commission to be responsible for conducting the auction process for the remaining PCS D-band and E-band licenses. As of February 26, seven companies had purchased the new rules announcement, a necessary step in order to participate in the auction process. The potential bidders are Brasil Telecom, TNL (owned by Telemar), TCO, and Telemig Celular; and three anonymous consortia: WXYZ 0006 Holdings S/A, Guadalupe Participações Ltda, and Carvalho de Freitas e Ferreira Advogados Associados.
Market Impact
The decision to create a special commission demonstrates Anatel's desire to avoid repeating its earlier failures in the first E-band auction, which did not attract any interest for Regions II and III. Although the D-band was totally sold, the Italian operator TIM will not use the spectrum in some areas where it already has cellular operations. In these areas, TIM forfeited control of the D-band PCS spectrum and, therefore, Anatel will reauction the licenses for these areas. In order to increase the competition levels in Brazil's mobile market, the regulator named seven people to be part of the commission and modified the original auction model. The licenses to be purchased will cover smaller geographical areas, similar to 10 areas of the A-band and B-band mobile operators, and together with the PCS license, the buyer will win a long-distance license. The payment for these new licenses can be done over the long term: 10% of the price is required at time of purchase with the remaining 90% to be paid over six payments: one each year after the first three years of operations, which means the last payment will be made only after eight years of operations.
Conclusions
- Considering the high competition levels in some areas that already have three or four operators licensed to launch operations (A-band and B-band operators plus Telemar's Oi or TIM), the most attractive regions are those that still have only two competitors licensed: Region 5 (states of Parana and Santa Catarina), Region 7 (Center-west area).
- Although the regulator is facilitating the purchase of new licenses, the lack of pent-up demand and increasing popularity of prepaid plans will the profitable entrance of new players in the market more difficult due to the falling ARPUs and heavy subsidies necessary to lure away top subscribers from existing operators.
Wireless/Mobile Europe
by Declan LonerganEvent Summary
From February 1922, the world's GSM community congregated in Cannes for one of the mobile communications industry's largest annual events, the 3GSM World Congress. As usual, the exhibitor and delegate lists contained the names of all established GSM players, as well as the usual batch of hopefuls, scrambling desperately for delegate mind share.
Market Impact
Having attended each of the last six GSM Congresses in Cannes, we are now just as interested in the mood on the exhibition floor as we are in the multitude of content, demonstrations, and announcements. Traditionally, the GSM Congress has been the venue of choice for wireless equipment vendors to showcase new service concepts, to demonstrate unrivalled insights into the industry's changing dynamics, and to announce new partnerships and products. This year, however, many were clearly still consumed by the turbulence of the past 1218 months. Where there were new announcements, most were wisely focused on immediate or short-term opportunities for their customers, the mobile operators, to achieve competitive differentiation, retain more of their customers, or generate new revenue streams.
Conclusions
- Based on last week's evidence from Cannes, the wireless industry is still in a period of severe retrenchment. The lack of compelling major announcements from traditional "movers and shakers" like Ericsson, Motorola, and Nortel is indicative of the slow climb that will be required to get back to anywhere approaching the confidence peaks of 1999 and early 2000.
- Where there was some optimism and excitement at the Congress, it frequently emanated from multimedia messaging, and the opportunity that this exciting new technology offers to sustain the impressive recent level of growth in mobile messaging adoption and usage.
- A review of the annual pilgrimage to Cannes would not be complete without some mention of 3G. It has never been clearer that 3G alone will not offer an antidote for the wireless industry's current illnesses. While vendors like Ericsson try to convince us that 3G is already here, just not in very large quantities, and that we should not expect a big bang impact from 3G in the near future, most of us cannot help but listen to this message and reminisce about the good old days in Cannes when 3G was sold as the answer to all our problems.
Japan Market Strategies, Convergent Communications Asia-Pacific
by James WalshEvent Summary
On February 21, leading long-distance and international carrier NTT Communications introduced Arcstar Global e-VLAN Package Service, an international wide-area Ethernet service aimed at corporate users. By renting LAN switches and other terminals, users will be able to send Ethernet traffic between sites over their existing ATM and frame relay (FR) circuits. NTT Communications is in fact positioning the new service as an option to its existing international ATM and FR offerings.
Market Impact
To meet growing capacity requirements on corporate WANs, and satisfy the need for global network reach, Japanese MNCs are increasingly looking to upgrade their corporate WANs. Many are considering migration away from traditional networks based mainly on FR and ATM, to newer protocols, such as IP VPNs and Ethernet. Japan's major carriers are responding to this shift by expanding their portfolios. NTT Communications has already been offering a domestic wide-area Ethernet service called "e-VLAN," which, unlike the new global service, requires the use of dedicated Ethernet infrastructure. The new service offers attractive benefits. Users will be able to provision Ethernet cheaply over their existing corporate networks to enjoy seamless Ethernet connectivity between global sites.
Recommendations/Conclusions
- While operators are correct in actively deploying new services to meet the changing networking requirements of corporate customers, they are not yet marketing these adequately. Operators must dispel users' uncertainties about security and quality, and also provide convincing cases for the new services by outlining benefits compared with traditional networking options.
- MNC customers are still largely concerned about the basic issues of network performance and reach. Global carriers, therefore, must address these issues immediately, and take responsibility for end-to-end network control. Only by doing this will they be able to develop lasting long-term relations with end-user corporations and come to be seen as partners.
Wireless/Mobile Enterprise & Commerce
by Adam ZawelTrend
In 2002, most major U.S. wireless carriers will launch their next-generation networks, supporting speeds of 3060 Kbps. Complementing the network launches, carriers are selling a wide variety of devices capable of data applications, like graphics, photos, MP3s, and more. Since carriers are hoping to profit by charging for these premium data services they are deploying their next-generation content and billing strategies.
Trend Analysis
We expect at least one carrier (AT&T is a good bet) to duplicate the DoCoMo model, establishing a service that bills customers directly (on their phone bill) for digital content. Verizon will focus on BREW and selling downloadable content that can be manipulated on the device. Sprint PCS now offers premium content ("Ringers & More") for a flat monthly fee, but most U.S. carriers are deploying billing solutions that enable them to charge by the download or by the kilobit (this later method is more likely to be used by businesses).
On the content side, most carriers are hoping that application developers will be eager to utilize their billing and delivery platforms. If SMS starts to take off (and we expect it will now that U.S. carriers are finally enabling interoperability), the carriers will soon offer multimedia messaging services (MMS). This is where the distinction between messaging and content starts to blur. On February 25, Sprint PCS communicated its second announcement with digital imaging solution vendors, implying that Sprint is betting that consumers will use their phones to view images and photos.
Recommendations and Predictions
- U.S. carriers should follow a two-pronged approach to the consumer mobile Internet opportunity: first, carriers should develop a billing platform that content providers can easily utilize. If (and it's a big "if") third-party developers can deliver content that customers will pay premiums for, the carriers will profit from increased network usage while also getting a piece of the mobile commerce transactions. Second, carriers should chase the SMS market and develop their own suite of text and graphic applications oriented around interpersonal communications.
- Retailers, media companies, and content providers should start experimenting with wireless (if they haven't already) in anticipation of faster networks and devices with richer displays. When wireless messaging in the United States starts to enjoy the success of SMS in Europe (over 60% of European wireless users regularly send text messages), then advertisers and content providers will be scrambling to develop a wireless strategy. Messaging (including text and graphics) can quickly evolve from person-to-person to person-to-business.
Wireless/Mobile Services
by Knox BrickenEvent
Recently, Cingular Wireless launched its new Live Bar initiativean interactive retail counter that enables customers to test drive voice and data solutions on the carrier's network while in the store. In addition, Cingular retail sites will have PCs set up, which will enable customers to see demonstrations, pay bills, and download ringtones. The stores will be comfortable "café-style" locations, which Cingular hopes will better attract consumers and encourage them to spend more time in the retail outlets.
Analysis
In an effort to reduce churn, wireless carriers are looking for ways to develop a stronger relationship with their customers. Obviously, the point of sale represents an ideal place to begin this process. Cingular Wireless is hoping to use its retail sites as a place where customers can develop a stronger comfort level with wireless technology, as well as leverage the opportunity to better educate customers on wireless data tools and capabilities.
Recommendations
- As carriers begin selling more wireless data products, the direct retail channel will become more significant in the carrier's distribution mix, because of the complexity of the sale. The Yankee Group expects to see the carriers increasingly focus on selling wireless handsets through direct stores and direct sales representatives over the next six months.
- The Yankee Group has been saying that in order for wireless data to be successful, carriers must better educate customers on the capabilities and functionality of wireless handsets as data tools. Cingular's Live Bar initiative presents an opportunity for the carrier to do just that. The Yankee Group expects that other carries will redesign their direct retail outlets in the hopes of achieving similar objectives.
E-Networks & Broadband Access
by Jamie GruenerEvent Summary
Sun Microsystems recently announced its expanded storage market strategy, upgrading its focus on the market by rolling out a series of software, hardware, and service offerings designed to give it a wider portfolio. Sun hopes to demonstrate a compelling vision that will attract enterprise customers, and all of these recent product and services arrivals fill voids Sun faced within its storage strategy. It is clear that Sun's commitment to the storage market dramatically increased through this event, and the company showed its plans to be as aggressive here as they has been in building a top-tier server business.
Market Impact
Sun's new storage strategy takes aim at a number of its fellow system vendor competitors at two tiers: traditional infrastructure vendors such as IBM that can provide a wide breadth of products, as well as the more recent demigod EMC, which has been the storage market leader for the last half decade. Sun wants to start recapturing its own backyard by retaking server-attached storage that has been surrendered to EMC, as well as expanding its role in storage area networks and heterogeneous storage environments in the longer term. We estimate the network storage market will grow to a $24 billion market by 2005. Sun will still have its work cut out for it, as the rest of the top-tiered vendors have had a number of years to make inroads in this market. This announcement laid much of the foundation for this initiative to stake a claim.
Because Sun is so late to market with an articulated strategy, it will need to emphasize things other vendors may not in order to gain market momentum. The company has made a number of acquisitions and partnerships in the last two years to assemble its offerings. It acquired HighGround Systems and LSC to build its storage resource management and file system offerings, and partnered with Hitachi Data Systems for high-end storage arrays in August 2001. New software products are the results of these acquisitions, including Sun's Storage One Software architecture, storage resource management suite StorEdge, and a new higher end file system QFS/SAM-FS. This announcement also expanded Sun's midrange systems with two new storage arrays (StorEdge 3900 and StorEdge 6900), as well as added new partnership and service offerings focused on broadening its storage services and channel partners.
Conclusions
- Enterprises and service providers should take a strong look at Sun's storage strategy. Sun hasn't been in the top four vendors enterprises that request proposals from when acquiring storage, and it is time for customers to reevaluate whether or not Sun has the breadth of storage product necessary to support storage initiatives.
- Sun will need to continually add new products and emphasize software and services in order to make its mark in the storage market. Because of the competitive nature of the storage market today (enterprises have shifted their buying priorities from big box buys to tools to assist with storage utilization and management), Sun must aggressively market its storage management capabilities.
Brazil Market Strategies, Convergent Communications Latin America
by Raphael DuailibiMarket Event
The Brazilian press reported on February 25 that Anatel would impose sanctions on fixed-line operator Vésper if it accepts mobile operators' claim that Vesper's fixed-wireless service allows residential clients to use their cordless handsets beyond the radius of a cellular transmission tower. Baptized "Vésper Portátil," this product was launched on October 31, presenting three major singularities: it has a prepaid payment, offers unlimited use of local fixed-to-fixed calls, and provides limited mobility.
Market Impact: Fixed Telephony
As anticipated by the Yankee Group, Anatel is being pressured, especially by mobile operators, to limit Vésper's actions on mobile telephony. Until now, the regulator was not acting firmly in this matter and Vésper was profiting from the situation. As an example, in its advertising Vésper never explicitly mentioned that its product would work outside houses, but many times presented outdoor situations, such as in a tennis court of a huge mansion.
In spite of the general protest, Vésper's new product was not successful enough even to slightly change the telephony landscape. As we anticipated, the product is too expensive for lower socio-economic strata (SES) households and is not very attractive to higher SES households (it does not allow Internet access or fax transmission for instance).
Recommendations/Conclusions
- The Yankee Group applauds Anatel's position, since Vésper did not buy a license for mobile operations. Anatel should watch closely the evolution of the market in order not to penalize operators that invested billions of dollars on mobile licenses. Moreover, this type of unexpected regulatory changes may hinder foreign investment in the country.
- As mentioned before Telefonica's and Telemar's position were not at all affected. For this, it is not worth it to them to invest in similar plans to fight back Véspers' new plan.
- Vésper should not expect that it will be allowed to launch full mobile services in the future. Vésper should pursue a plan to become profitable in the fixed telephony market, instead of expecting that a mobile operation would save the company.
Japan Market Strategies, Internet Strategies Asia-Pacific
by Koji OkiEvent Summary
On February 26, Japan's English daily, The Japan Times, reported that NEC has begun discussion with NTT Communications, KDDI, and Japan Telecom to form an alliance among their respective Internet service provider (ISP) businesses. The alliance would be called Japan Online (JOL), and if realized, would not merge or fully integrate the companies' ISP operations, but would be a broadly-based cooperative arrangement for content distribution, collaborative marketing, and user information exchange.
Market Impact
The news comes in response to the recent announcement by Sony that it was looking to acquire Fujitsu's ISP, Nifty, to merge with Sony's ISP So-net, creating a company with an estimated 7 million subscribers. By contrast, the Japan Online vendor-carrier alliance would have a combined total of around 10.8 million subscribers, making it more than a third larger than the Sony-Fujitsu merger.
Both groups are hoping that their proposed alliance or merger would realize operational synergies and economies of scale. Since most of the 6,500 registered ISPs in Japan are either operating at low profitability or have already ceased operations because of fierce competition in the market, there can be little doubt about what either or both of these alliances would mean for the broader ISP marketfurther consolidation, and sooner, rather than later.
Recommendations
- Whether the alliance between NEC and the three telecom carriers will actually come to pass is still uncertain. Given the current and previous levels of competition among the three telecom carriers in the wireline, wireless, voice, and data communications businesses, it would not be a surprise if the discussions encounter stumbling blocks.
- Nonetheless, under the current severe market conditions, each of the companies in question must be flexible in forming alliances. Cooperation among operatorson a service by service basiswill increase in the future.
- As with other world markets, most ISPs in Japan have been hard hit by declining advertising revenues and falling Internet service fees. To survive the fierce competition, ISPs must come up with new business models and diversify revenue sources.
Wireless/Mobile Technologies
by Sarah KimEvent Summary
Microsoft and Intel revealed their plans to develop reference designs for personal digital assistants (PDAs) and smart phones last week at the 3GSM World Congress 2002. While Microsoft concurrently announced an alliance with Texas Instruments (TI) for its OMAP processor and GPRS technology, its joint announcement with Intel generated by far the most excitement in the press because it alluded to the possibility of replicating in the wireless market Wintel's dominance in the PC industry.
Market Impact
It would be a mistake to label this a joint announcement. Beneath the surface of this initiative, the real focus is on Intel's strategic advances in the wireless space. By launching a reference design with Microsoft, Intel has effectively signaled to the industry that it will expand its existing role as a supplier of flash memory only to the more lucrative and pivotal role of a baseband technology provider. More specifically, Intel's move reignites the ongoing battle against its arch rival, Texas Instruments, the current leader in DSP-based baseband technology. While Intel is clearly taking the right steps, TI holds time-to-market lead as well as strong relationships with giants in the wireless industry such as Nokia.
Conclusion
- While the combined resources behind the Wintel alliance will certainly not go unnoticed, the key take-away point from this announcement is that Intel is making a serious effort to break into the wireless market.
- While TI adds greater value to Microsoft's near-term wireless strategy, Intel's wireless vision, which separates the processing of applications and communications, is in the long-run more in line with Microsoft's vision for proliferation of advanced applications.
- Regardless of the winners and losers of this development, the industry will see a proliferation of OEMs and ODMs, which will, in turn, shift the competitive focus toward differentiated industrial design, user interface, and customized applications.
Door Remains Open in Rapidly Maturing Portal Market
aispv2n3, Report, February 2002, by Robert Perry, CFAElectronic Billing: Onward and Upward n 2001
bpasv3n2, Report, February 2002, by Lisa CebolleroKorean Residential Broadband Market
ccapv3n2, Report, February 2002, by James WalshGlobal Crossing Files Chapter 11 and Gains New Investors
ccapv3n3, Flash, February 2002, by Erica Eppinger, Camille Mendler, Sandra Palumbo, Mary Regan, and Christopher SlaughterGlobal Crossing Files Chapter 11 and Gains New Investors
cclav3n3, Flash, February 2002, by Erica Eppinger, Camille Mendler, Sandra Palumbo, Mary Regan, and Christopher SlaughterGlobal Crossing Files Chapter 11 and Gains New Investors
ccev2n4, Flash, February 2002, by Erica Eppinger, Camille Mendler, Sandra Palumbo, Mary Regan, and Christopher SlaughterElectronic Officialdom: The Canadian Government Online
cmsv6n2, Report, February 2002, by Jeremy DepowThe Rise and Stall of Optical Standards in 2002
cniv1n6, Report, February 2002, by Marian StasneyDigital Media Distribution: The New Face of Network Computing?
mesv6n2, Report, February 2002, by Steven Vonder HaarOutsourcing: The People Issues
tmsv1n2, Report, February 2002, by Carrie LewisFinanical Institutions' Wireless Strategies
wmecv1n3, Report, February 2002, by Adam ZawelVerizon Wireless's IXRTT Enterprise Push
wmecv1n4, Flash, February 2002, by Eugene Signorini
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