EUROPEANS WILL SEND NEARLY 17 BILLION MOBILE MESSAGES PER MONTH IN 2007 AS
EMAIL AND MMS GAIN MOMENTUM, ACCORDING TO FORRESTER

***SMS Still Dominates Basic Text, IM Finds Its Niche, And EMS Fails To
Connect***

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, 13 May 2002 . . . New messaging technologies give
users lower-price alternatives to expensive SMS, EMS, and MMS and will
force operators to retool the value proposition of premium-priced
messaging, according to a new report by Forrester Research B.V. (Nasdaq:
FORR). Messaging revenue will drop for the first time ever in 2004 as SMS
traffic stabilizes at decreasing price points; through 2007, the effective
price per message of any type will face continued downward pressure,
dropping 16 percent over five years.

"The entry of instant messaging (IM) and email introduces the economics of
the Web to the premiums of SMS, yielding a loss of pricing control for
operators," said Forrester Analyst Michelle de Lussanet. "For fast
person-to-person messages, consumers don't need the richness of enhanced
messaging service (EMS) or multimedia messaging (MMS). They will stick with
SMS for its ease-of-use, lower price, and fast speed. Further, operators
will not abandon the proven SMS cash cow because the technology serves as
an enabler for other services like voice mail and MMS. With the
availability of the new messaging choices, 10 percent of SMS traffic will
be cannibalized over those five years -- but 6 billion messages of
incremental traffic will raise messaging revenue to 25 billion euros in
2007, a 42 percent increase on 2002."

Contrary to operator belief that IM has no market, one in six European
mobile users use IM on PCs today. As phone-based IM clients and always-on
GPRS networks make mobile IM compelling, users will turn to it as a cheaper
SMS alternative and as the best tool for dialogues and group messaging. But
Forrester believes that Europeans will flock to email on phones -- simple
email alerts are the single most used mobile service today, and email is
the No. 1 mobile service that users are willing to pay for.

"Going forward, SMS will continue to serve the messaging needs of
mainstream consumers, claiming two-thirds of messages sent in 2007," de
Lussanet added. "However, an average effective price of 0.07 euros per SMS
that year will limit revenue to 12 billion euros ? 47 percent of the total,
and 34 percent less than in 2002. EMS will simply go unnoticed, and only
one in five mobile users will use EMS regularly -- yielding a meager
2percent of total messaging traffic and 3 percent of total revenue. In
2007, one in four users will send IM messages regularly. IM users will
drive massive traffic, sending 50 messages per month on average in 2002 and
40 in 2007, and IM will contribute 19 percent of all traffic and 10 percent
of revenues.

"Rich messaging traffic will split evenly between MMS and email in 2007,
with more than a billion messages each per month -- although more consumers
will regularly use MMS, email users will send more messages. MMS will yield
8 billion euros in revenue in 2007 at an average effective price per
message of 0.80 euros, while email will draw one-fourth as much revenue at
0.02 euros per message.  However, this picture masks the profound
displacement of MMS' potential by email -- if all mobile emails sent were
MMSs instead, MMS would generate an additional 27 billion euros in revenue
over the five years."

For the report "Mobile Messaging's Next Generation," Forrester interviewed
executives at 20 mobile operators across Europe.