BROADBAND WILL DRIVE ONLINE CONSOLE GAMING INTO 10
MILLION EUROPEAN HOMES,
BY 2006
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, February 8, 2002 . . . For the next 12 months,
Europe will be awash with next-generation console hype touting the
application possibilities of these extremely powerful and flexible consumer
devices. But according to a new Technographics® report by Forrester
Research B.V. (Nasdaq: FORR), only online games will gather enough momentum
as a new application for consoles.
"Applications like Web access and consumer electronic device hubs for
digital cameras, MP3 players, and PVRs have all been proposed as areas
where next-generation consoles could win," said Forrester Technographics
Analyst Paul Jackson. "But despite the wealth of potential applications,
only online games will succeed in taking the devices beyond what previous
consoles can do. Today, the only noncore console functions used by a
significant number of consumers are CD and DVD playback, and consoles will
have difficulty expanding on this early success. Game consoles' primary
purpose has been the presentation of compelling gaming content, and
consoles are designed around a TV output device, an ergonomic joypad input
device, and ease-of-use -- that will not change."
Forrester asserts that the success of online game offerings will be driven
by entertainment-focused "technology optimists" who exhibit a high
propensity to adopt broadband. Crucially, online console gaming will rely
on fast, always-on broadband connectivity. This synergy will increase over
the next three years as both technologies become more affordable, leading
to 10 million European households having the technology to play online
games via console by 2006. Multiconsole households will be small in 2002
due to high hardware prices and a lack of compelling game titles, but will
grow to account for 30% of sales by 2005 and 2006.
"Three distinct phases in the development of online console games will
emerge," Jackson added. "For 2002 and the first half of 2003, manufacturers
will focus on selling the base console, compelling game bundles, price
reductions, and the continued promotion of "better-than-ever" one-player
games will all stimulate consumer interest. For the second half of 2003 and
2004, attention will move to connecting the broadband network with
consoles. By 2006, 24% of European households will have broadband access --
41% of online households, and next-generation consoles will be among the
first nonTV devices (along with PCs) to plug into broadband. The online
gaming explosion will occur in 2005 when 12.7 million households will have
the necessary technology to play online games."
The report "Game Consoles Connect," drew from Forrester's Consumer
Technographics Q2 2001 Europe Devices & Access Study, fielded in seven
European countries by means of consumer mail panels of 22,825 adult
respondents. The seven markets are France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy,
The Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden. Forrester augmented this with data from
its Consumer Technographics Q4 2001 Europe Devices & Access Study, which
had 26,149 respondents in the same seven markets. Forrester also took data
from the wider Q2 2001 Europe Benchmark Study, fielded in 13 European
countries by means of consumer mail panels of 29,354 adult respondents. The
13 markets are those above plus Austria, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Norway,
and Switzerland.