SPAIN'S iDTV PENETRATION WILL REACH 8.4
MILLION HOUSEHOLDS -- IN 2007,
FORRESTER CALCULATES
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, 1 May 2002 . . . Europe's iDTV penetration will
reach 44 percent of European households by 2007, up from only 11 percent
today, according to a new brief by Forrester Research (Nasdaq: FORR). Four
countries will drive iDTV's growth -- the UK will take 45 percent of
Europe's iDTV penetration; France, Spain, and Italy will share 44 percent;
and the rest of Western Europe will account for only 11 percent.
Furthermore, satellite will be the main delivery mechanism.
"The growth of iDTV across Europe won't occur in leaps and bounds," said
Forrester Analyst Hellen K. Omwando. "It will grow at a compound annual
growth rate of only 26 percent to reach two-thirds of the number of
PC-based Net households by 2006. The UK will still have the largest number
of households with iDTV by 2007, but the 61 percent penetration will start
saturating. France and Italy will play catch up and reach a penetration of
57 percent. Italy's impeding merger of Stream and TELE+ will provide the
right ownership, impetus, and focus to market and enhance iDTV services.
France will get a boost from the recent restructuring of CANAL+ and the
pay-TV market consolidation, both of which will enable better collaboration
with key market players."
By 2007, three in four Swedes and Danes will have access to iDTV, with the
Norwegians close behind. The focus on digital terrestrial will hold Finland
at 59 percent despite its government's push for digital TV. In Portugal, TV
Cabo's iDTV service is the only game in town, but it offers the service at
a sweet price of only 7 euros if subscribers buy their own set-top box and
15 euros if they rent it from the operator. We expect the firm connect
400,000 Portuguese households by 2007. Germany will not grow beyond a
miserly 16 percent iDTV penetration in 2007. In the Netherlands, iDTV
penetration will only reach 31 percent of Dutch households by 2007.
"Today, satellite delivery grabs the lion's share of iDTV broadcast at 69
percent," Omwando added. "By 2007 satellite will continue to retain most
subscribers, cable will ramp up but not enough to catch up, and digital
terrestrial will still struggle to find a foothold. Satellite broadcast
will remain the most popular delivery mechanism, as better quality and more
channels -- up to 300 in BSkyB's case -- outweigh satellite's problems of
subscribers having to use a phone connection as the return path and
relatively high cost. But satellite's share will drop to 55 percent by 2007
as the other delivery methods gain ground. Cable will account for 34% of
delivery of iDTV, up from 23% today. The collapse of terrestrial players
Quiero and ITV Digital has set back an already fledgling market and digital
terrestrial will only reach 11 percent of European homes by 2007 -- just 3
percent more than where it stands today."