CMR Forecasts Stronger Growth In 2002 Ad Spending Than Previously Predicted
Mid-Year Update Reflects Expectations For a Healthier U.S. Economic Gain and the Better-Than-Expected Upfront Season

NEW YORK, June 25, 2002 - Advertising spending is expected to rise 2.5 percent for 2002 to 109.1 billion¹, according to the mid-year estimate first released this morning at AdWatch: Outlook 2002™ by CMR, a leading provider of strategic advertising and marketing communications information.

AdWatch: Outlook 2002™, presented by Advertising Age, CMR/ TNS Media Intelligence U.S. and UBS Warburg, is a premier event that offers an unparalleled perspective on the future of advertising, marketing and media. This one-day conference began earlier today at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in New York City.

"We are off to a good start this year, which suggests a rebound over last year," said David Peeler, president and CEO of CMR. "All and all, we can expect three factors to boost the market this year: the impact of the upfront on the broadcast season, the upcoming elections in November and the continued growth of Spanish Language television. Nonetheless, despite the improvement over 2001, full year 2002 will be down 6.7 percent when compared to the high-water mark of 2000."

CMR estimates that total ad spending for the first half of 2002 will show a slight decline, down 0.4 percent compared to the same timeframe in 2001. In retrospect, without the $986 million² in ad spending on the Winter Olympics, the first half of 2001 would be down 2.2 percent. While improvement in the latter half of the year is expected due to stronger growth during the third and fourth quarters, the second half of 2002 is being compared to the particularly depressed levels of 2001.

2002 QUARTERLY GROWTH TRENDS

Source: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence U.S.
(e) = Estimate

 

GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR 2002 BY MEDIA³

Source: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence U.S.

 

The upcoming elections in November will provide added spending for spot television, local newspapers and radio advertising across markets in states with significant Congressional and statewide races. For Spanish Language TV, CMR predicts to lead spending in 2002 by 10.4 percent. Peeler noted, "Year-over-year, CMR has tracked a healthy double-digit growth pattern for this medium, which has surprisingly outpaced the trend for the market in general. Interestingly, in the midst of the recession, Spanish Language TV grew by 14 percent."

Overall, 2002 shapes up to be a better year than 2001. Key trends impacting today's advertising marketplace such as, the better-than-expected broadcast upfront, fall elections and the continued growth in Spanish Language TV, will drive the outlook for the market this year